Filmography and video production in general has for its whole history been a business that requires a series of upfront investment in gear and materials. These barriers to entry have not disappeared all together, but at least they have diminished in large part due to diminishing cost of camera gear. The storage media has also become reusable and many more takes came be caught. Also the cost of editing equipment and material management allows material to be discarded later on in the process. All businesses rely on bottle necks and as technology develops new competitive forces take effect.
Consumer HD cameras produce acceptable pictures and PC operating systems come with simple editing suites. If the capture technology makes further leaps in quality it will be hard to distinguish between amateur and professional productions. Currently the biggest and easiest ways to spot amateurish production are shaky picture and poor lighting. Part of this problem can be solved with motion sensing technology and faster sensors. Another partial solution is spread of knowledge on convenient shooting techniques.
All these developments point to opportunities in new areas. It would be a sensible prediction to proclaim that light rigs and camera cranes are going to be a mass-market product soon. Cameras are going to have more features that actually guide proper use for beginners. Things like automated image composition techniques or other sensors that for example give feedback if the camera movements are too rough are likely to emerge. If the camera does not advise about the problems the editing suite should. Of course it will take a huge investment in usability design before new techniques are adapted widely. Nobody wants to read more camera or software instruction manuals.
There is always a counterbalancing phenomenon to all change. Professionals already know how to achieve what they want and are likely resists new technology from prosumer products. One area that will be hard to resist however is instruction of achieving new visual effects explained in easy to follow format such as short video clips. Advanced video composition has already taken leaps as Adobe AfterEffects and Apple’s Motion toolboxes allow new visual styles to be innovated in the post-production. Knowing how to achieve the latest trendy look and feel will be an integral part of whole production team’s proficiency.